Ah, Decision Day—what a glorious event. For some, it’s the beginning of a win-or-go-home journey to MLS Cup; for others, it’s the unceremonious end of a journey that will have to wait at least one year more. Hearts are broken, hands are frozen, and the playoff field is finally chosen. Huzzah!

For Minnesota United, the only thing left hanging in the balance on this year’s Decision Day is playoff seeding. I’ve gone to the trouble of doing the math (so fun) and figuring out every possible final position that the Loons could occupy in this year’s table. I think I’ve covered all of the best and worst possible outcomes we could see on this most decisive of days; read on so you know what to look out for.

How the Table is Set

This little subset of the Western Conference is all I really care about this weekend. Sure, the Loons’ first opponent will be higher in the table if they avoid falling into the Wild Card match, but we’ll get to that later—one thing at a time! For now, all you need to know is that the club can’t finish outside of this window. In fact, none of these teams can escape this little group, with a five-point gap separating fourth from fifth and seven-point gap separating ninth from tenth.

Breaking it Down

Your Loons could finish anywhere from fifth to eighth in the Western Conference. I’ve broken this little guide down into three categories, with two sub-categories in each to help paint the full picture. Call me Van Gogh, if you’d like, I won’t fight you. The first category is the club’s result on Saturday. Based on if MNUFC wins/loses/draws, we can then check the second category: the best and worst-case scenario results around the league.

• Loons Win
  • Finish the season on 52 points (one below club-record of 53, set in 2019)
  • Best-case scenario: fifth place
    • If both Houston and Colorado lose or draw, the Loons would leapfrog both of them in the standings to take fifth place, setting up a first-round matchup with the number four seed (Seattle or RSL, depending on Decision Day results for each).
  • Worst-case scenario: seventh place
    • If Colorado and Houston both win, the Loons would maintain seventh place and set up a first round matchup with the number two seed (that would be LAFC, unless the Galaxy lose and LAFC win by a big enough margin to beat them in goal differential).
• Loons tie
  • Finish the season on 50 points
  • Best-case scenario: seventh place
    • A loss, draw, or one-goal win for Vancouver would keep them behind MNUFC.
  • Worst-case scenario: eighth place
    • The Loons would fall behind Vancouver into eighth-place if the Caps are able to overcome a few different tiebreakers. First, they’d have to win their own match, tying MNUFC on 50 points. Then, they would also be tied on games won. The second tie-breaker is goal difference, which the Loons currently have a two-goal advantage in. If the Caps win by three, they jump into seventh. If they win by two, they’d still have to score at least four goals to beat the Loons in the third tiebreaker, goals for. Basically, we don’t want Vancouver to win, okay?
• Loons lose
  • Finish the season on 49 points
  • Best-case scenario: seventh place
    • A Vancouver loss would allow the Loons to maintain seventh place.
  • Worst-case scenario: eighth place
    • The Loons would slip to eighth place in the event that Vancouver beats RSL. Even if Portland wins and ties MNUFC on 49 points, the Black and Blue have the edge on wins, the first tie-breaker.

Eighth place means that Portland would be coming to Minnesota for the Wild Card Match, that’s certain. Seventh place would put the Loons up against one of the teams from LA, likely LAFC. Fifth or sixth place would set up a date with either RSL or Seattle, depending on their respective Decision Day results. That means your Loons will face one of Portland, LAFC, LA Galaxy, RSL, or Seattle to kick off their playoff journey.

Head On a Swivel

So basically, you’re going to need to find a way to watch at least four games at once this Saturday. Every Western Conference match kicks off at 8:00 p.m., so get every screen you own turned on and pay close attention to the three games listed below. If you’ve got extra space, feel free to just turn on every Western Conference match, aside from FC Dallas vs. Sporting Kansas City. They’re just playing for fun at this point; sorry guys.

• Houston Dynamo FC vs. LA Galaxy
• Austin FC vs. Colorado Rapids
• Real Salt Lake vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC

All of the playoff spots have already been clinched in the West, but with so much still up in the air surrounding seeding and first-round matchups, this weekend is going to be absolutely huge. Rest up this week, fans; there’s going to be a lot going on at eight o’clock this Saturday.