It’s fall, everyone, and you know what that means: the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs are right around the corner! It’s that magical time of year when our league breaks from soccer norms and decides to give the championship trophy to the hottest team in all the land, and I’m not talking temperature. No, I’m talking about form, which is truly the key to winning the MLS Cup. Sure, you have to be good enough throughout the year to finish in the top two thirds of your conference, but as soon as the playoffs start, all that matters is how you’ve been playing lately.
In an effort to paint the playoff picture and predict the future for you, I’ve taken a look at how some of the past MLS Cup winners have ended their regular seasons, and I’ve done some math to see which Western Conference teams might threaten the Loons from a form perspective. This one’s got a lot of research and scattered thoughts, but stick with me for the ride, and you just might have a little bit of fun. Then again, you might just get confused. Either way, I really nerded out on this one, and I loved every second of it.
Historic Form
Like I said, it doesn’t matter what seed you are when the playoffs come around, just how well you’re playing. In fact, fourth seeds have taken the cup on four different occasions (2005, 2009, 2016, and 2021), with one of those teams even finishing the season below .500 (2009 RSL). League standing means nothing in the postseason, so forget about those numbers. They might as well be made up.
If you look at Columbus last season, you’ll see that the principle is true. They went into the playoffs as the third seed in the East, 12 points behind Cincinnati. But they ended the regular season with just one loss in their last eight matches, picking up 15 points in that span. That’s 1.88 points per game (ppg) for anyone wondering. Remember that number, okay?
Beyond last season, though, some of the league’s greatest MLS Cup runs have shown themselves at the tail end of the regular season. The 2016 Sounders finished as the fourth seed in the West on 48 points, but after losing just one of their last eight, they had the momentum to go on and take the cup, just like the Crew. Former Loons Osvaldo Alonso, Oniel Fisher, and Tyler Miller were on that squad, which isn’t to say they gave us some of that good luck while they were here, but I’m not saying it’s nothing; you know what I mean?
2021 NYCFC was a prime example of a surprise MLS Cup winner, and the 2015 Timbers likewise took the league by storm. The examples go on and on, but I digress. What’s the takeaway here? It’s not how you start your MLS season nor how you do in the middle that matters. The only time that really matters is the final stretch.
Final Forms
That was a few different then’s; this is now. Let’s talk about more recent, relevant numbers! So much math today. My brain still works, people! I looked at every single Western Conference team’s form since Leagues Cup ended, added up their points, and calculated their ppg in that timeframe. From this, we’re going to know exactly which teams are poised for dark horse runs to the Cup, and—spoiler alert—I think you’ll like the results.
Every team has played between six and eight matches since Leagues Cup. Houston is on the high end of that spectrum, while the Galaxy, Rapids, and SKC are all on the lower end. Everyone else has played seven games apiece for context, and with just two games to go for almost everyone, the form that we’re seeing right now is close enough to year-end form for me to use it for prediction purposes. Don’t like it? I’m sorry. I’m in too deep at this point.
Everyone is at or above 1.00 ppg as of right now, showcasing the sometimes frustrating, sometimes delightful parity of this league. Even San Jose, last in the league by nine points, are averaging a draw post-Leagues Cup. Even when the playoffs are out of reach, that fall form kicks in.
Seattle is, unfortunately, leading the way right now, with 16 points in their last seven games (2.29 ppg). The Galaxy are right behind them with 2.00 ppg, which makes sense, as both teams are in the top three spots in the West. But the third team in the form table? Not LAFC. It’s Minnesota United.
Since Leagues Cup, the Loons have earned 13 points from seven games, good enough for 1.86 ppg. That’s eerily close to Columbus’ form at the end of last season, just saying. Houston is finishing strong on 1.75 ppg as well, but beyond that, the form drops a bit across the conference. Everyone is beatable right now, but your Loons are among the hottest teams in the league. If they can keep this up against Vancouver this weekend, who, by the way, are averaging just 1.29 ppg since Leagues Cup, they’ll set themselves up for an exciting postseason push.
