We’re 27 matches into the 2024 Major League Soccer season, and we STILL haven’t played every Western Conference opponent. Crazy, right? I’ve been trying to figure out the formula the season planners use to determine who plays who at what time, and I’ve decided that I need to return to college for additional math courses. That said, I’d like to announce my temporary departure from mnufc.com as I pursue a degree in Major League Soccer Mathematics.
On second thought, that sounds like a lot of work, and the only school offering that course seems kind of sketchy. Nevermind, you’re stuck with me.
The Loons’ second-ever visit to CITYPARK will finally complete the Western Conference set this year, and with just six games remaining, it’s BEEN crunch time for a few weeks now. As the Black and Blue jockey for playoff positioning and hope to secure their postseason spot, CITY will be hoping for a miracle to get them back into that conversation. Last season’s Western Conference regular-season points leaders have fallen quite far this year, meaning that my preseason prediction from 2023 was just a bit early, not wrong, per se (I know I was wrong, just let me have this).
Not so Easy, is it?
It seems that year two has been a bit of an adjustment period for the newcomers, and pretty much every stat backs it up. Despite relatively little change in personnel, STL is 20 points back from where they were at this point last season, with just 28 points from as many games. They’re sitting in 13th place at the moment, 12 spots below their first-place finish in 2023. Looks like that hot start to life might have been a bit too good to be true, huh?
It’s hard to account for luck, especially when you’re on the receiving end of so much of it. If you look at the numbers behind St. Louis’ inaugural year, you might be surprised. Not only did CITY outperform their expected goals tally by 19.4 (xG was 42.6, actual goals scored was 62), they also outperformed their expected goals allowed tally by an additional 5.1 (xGa was 50.1, actual goals allowed was 45). That’s almost a 25-goal swing in their favor. The miracle that the newbies are looking for to get them into the playoffs this year? I think it already happened last season.
With 53 goals conceded in 2024—already eight more than last season—and six games still to play, the odds haven’t been in their favor to nearly the same extent this year. They’ve conceded about seven more goals than expected this time around, and that includes giving up at least three goals in 10 of their league matches this season. It’s been tough going in Mound City, but if last season proved anything, it’s that these guys are capable of creating their own luck in some pretty confounding ways.
That was Then, This is Saturday
Last season, the Loons ended St. Louis’ historic run to start their time in Major League Soccer, a run that saw them earn five wins in their first five matches. MNUFC then went into CITYPARK and came out the 1-0 victors, ending their impressive unbeaten start and bringing the league’s newbies back down to Earth. Fast forward to the end of the 2023 season, and St. Louis repaid the favor, coming to Allianz Field and claiming a 2-1 victory that contributed to the Loons missing the playoffs. Touché, St. Louis, touché indeed.
Now, with the Loons in a similar position to last September while their adversaries are reeling in the midst of a tough second year, Saturday’s game has a very different look to it than their previous two matchups. A win for the visitors would go a long way toward ensuring a shot at the postseason, while a win for the home side would keep the dream alive, even if by the thinnest of threads.
With very little to lose and the memory of last season’s loss at CITYPARK still relatively fresh in their memories, St. Louis will definitely be up for this weekend’s game. Their current three-game unbeaten run has seen them put together a few decent performances, including a 2-1 win over the high-flying LA Galaxy. We’ve seen some pretty impressive highs and some unexpected lows from this CITY side. The only thing we know for sure is that anything could happen in this one; you won’t want to miss it.
